The flu is surging on Long Island, and it's not looking good. Lab-confirmed cases have more than doubled in just one week, according to state data (https://nyshc.health.ny.gov/web/nyapd/new-york-state-flu-tracker), painting a worrying picture for Nassau and Suffolk counties. This alarming spike is just the latest sign pointing to a potentially brutal flu season ahead.
Dr. David Hirschwerk, medical director at North Shore University Hospital in Manhasset, warns of a "significant climb" in cases in the coming days and weeks, fueled by holiday gatherings. "Last year, we saw a sharp rise in mid-December," he explains, noting that current flu cases and hospitalizations are already slightly higher than this time last year.
But here's where it gets controversial: Infectious disease experts are sounding the alarm about a potentially severe season, partly due to the emergence of a new variant, subclade K (https://www.newsday.com/news/health/variant-subclade-k-k9raxkxa), of the H3N2 influenza strain. This variant, which emerged after this season's flu vaccine was developed, was responsible for the majority of flu cases in Japan and the UK.
While RSV (respiratory syncytial virus) and COVID-19 are currently circulating at lower levels than last year, Dr. Hirschwerk cautions that the holiday season, with its multitude of gatherings, creates prime conditions for respiratory virus transmission.
The numbers speak for themselves: Suffolk County saw a jump from 223 to 562 cases in just one week (ending November 22nd), while Nassau County experienced a similar surge from 378 to 726 cases during the same period. Statewide, confirmed flu cases have nearly doubled, though these numbers likely underestimate the true extent of the outbreak, as many people with the flu may not seek testing or treatment.
And this is the part most people miss: State data reveals a concerning trend in hospitalizations. While COVID-19 hospitalizations saw a modest 2% increase (to 292) and RSV hospitalizations rose by 21% (to 152) during the week ending November 22nd, flu hospitalizations skyrocketed by a staggering 99% (to 413).
Adding to the concern, flu vaccination rates remain alarmingly low. Only about 20% of Nassau County residents and 17% of Suffolk County residents have received their flu shots (https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/covid-19-and-influenza-vaccination-data).
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) strongly recommends the flu vaccine for everyone over 6 months old (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/hcp/acip/index.html).
"We're bracing for a tough flu season," says Dr. Eve Meltzer Krief, a pediatrician at Allied Physicians Group’s Huntington Village Pediatrics. "It's crucial to remember that the flu can be very serious for children, contrary to what many believe." She highlights a sobering statistic: last year, 280 children died from flu-related complications across the United States (https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/74/wr/mm7436a2.htm), with 27 deaths in New York State alone. These were the highest numbers ever recorded in a single season, according to state and federal officials. Tragically, most of these children were not fully vaccinated, and nearly half had no underlying health conditions that would have made them more susceptible.
"Getting the flu vaccine dramatically reduces the risk of severe illness, hospitalization, and even death from the flu, even when the vaccine isn't a perfect match for the circulating strain," Dr. Krief emphasizes.
Dr. Hirschwerk urges everyone to get vaccinated now. "We're likely to see a sharp rise in flu cases very soon," he warns. "There's no better time than now to protect yourself."
What do you think? Are you concerned about the upcoming flu season? Will you be getting vaccinated? Let us know in the comments below.
